Europe arrives in Munich talking like it needs a Plan B

MUNICH — European leaders gathering around the Munich Security Conference are increasingly talking like people who are writing backup plans — not just speeches.

The shift is visible in public remarks and in the language of policy documents that frame the current moment as a period of destabilizing politics and strategic uncertainty. The Munich Security Report for 2026 argues the world has entered an era of “wrecking-ball politics,” where major powers pursue disruption over incremental reform — a diagnosis that has fed Europe’s push for more self-reliant security planning.

In one of the clearest signals, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has urged the European Union to “bring to life” its mutual defense clause — Article 42.7 — framing it as an obligation rather than an optional gesture. While NATO remains the cornerstone of European defense for most member states, the underlying message is that Europe wants to be able to act even if the U.S. is distracted, reluctant or divided.

The UK is making a similar pitch from outside the EU. The Financial Times reported that Prime Minister Keir Starmer called for a “remade” Western alliance and urged Europe to reduce reliance on the United States for security, including through new joint procurement efforts to speed rearmament and reduce costs. Those arguments have grown louder as European governments watch U.S. politics and debate what “burden sharing” will mean in practice.

The change isn’t just rhetorical. Policy conversations are increasingly about stockpiles, production capacity, procurement bottlenecks and the ability to sustain support for Ukraine in a long war — the kinds of details that matter when optimism about deterrence gives way to planning for worst-case scenarios. The report’s framing, alongside leaders’ speeches, reflects a Europe that is less focused on assuming stability and more focused on building options.

None of this means Europe has “given up” on the transatlantic relationship. It means officials are acknowledging uncertainty as a strategic reality — and that the continent’s security debate is shifting toward redundancy, resilience and contingency. In a world where alliances can be stressed by domestic politics and economic shocks, leaders in Munich are signaling they want fewer single points of failure.