Existing home sales just ticked up and the reason matters for 2026 planning

Existing home sales just moved higher again, and that small shift is giving you an early read on how the 2026 housing landscape is likely to feel. Instead of a sudden boom, the data points to a slow thaw that will reward buyers, sellers, and agents who plan around gradual change rather than dramatic swings.

If you are mapping out moves for 2026, the latest uptick in existing home sales is less about a single month of good news and more about confirmation that the market is edging toward a new, more balanced normal.

1. Why a tiny sales uptick is a big signal

You are not imagining it: the existing home market finally looks a bit less stuck. Existing home sales have now risen for several consecutive months, a pattern that suggests buyers are reengaging as affordability improves at the margins rather than retreating. The latest data shows that existing home sales edged higher again in November, extending a modest but important recovery trend that follows a long stretch of depressed activity.

According to one detailed breakdown, Existing home sales rose for the third consecutive month in November as lower mortgage rates continued to boost home sales. A separate national snapshot reports a Month Over Month 0.5% increase in existing-home sales to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.13 m in November, underscoring that the improvement is measurable even if it is not dramatic. For your 2026 planning, that combination of multiple monthly gains and a 0.5% national bump is the clearest sign yet that demand is stabilizing rather than sliding into a deeper slump.

2. What the November numbers really tell you

Headline sales figures only matter if you understand what is happening underneath them. The November move higher is not a speculative frenzy, it is a function of slightly better borrowing costs and a bit more willingness among owners to list. That is why you are seeing a rise in transactions without a corresponding collapse in pricing, a pattern that points to a market that is loosening but still tight enough to support values.

Nationally, existing home sales in the United States have been described as climbing by 0.5% from the previous month to an annualized pace that marked a 9 Month High, reinforcing the idea that the recent uptick is part of a broader recovery rather than a one-off blip. The same November report that pegged sales at 4.13 m also highlighted that gains were not evenly distributed, with some regions, particularly in the Midwest and West, seeing more pronounced improvement. For you, that means local context still matters, but the national direction of travel is finally pointing upward.

3. Days on market and what they reveal about leverage

If you want to know who has the upper hand, you should watch how long listings sit before going under contract. In November, Homes stayed on the market for a median of 36 days, up from 34 days the prior month and 32 days a year earlier, a sequence of 36, 34, 32 that captures the subtle shift in momentum away from ultra-fast bidding wars. Slightly longer marketing times give buyers more room to negotiate while still signaling that demand is healthy enough to keep properties moving.

The same analysis that reported those Homes figures also noted that the buyer traffic index ticked higher, from 74.9 to 76.3 in October, which is consistent with more shoppers touring homes even as they take a bit longer to commit. For your 2026 strategy, that combination of rising traffic and slightly longer days on market suggests you should expect a negotiating environment that is firmer than the frenzy of 2021 but still far from a buyer’s free-for-all.

4. The inventory dilemma that still shapes your options

Even with sales edging up, you are still operating in a market defined by scarcity. The core problem is that many owners remain locked into ultra-low mortgage rates and are reluctant to list, which keeps the pool of available homes smaller than historical norms. That structural shortage is why modest demand improvements are translating into higher sales without triggering a flood of price cuts.

Industry economists have been blunt that Existing-home sales have lagged over the past two years largely because inventory has not kept up with potential demand, even as new listings improved at points earlier this year. That backdrop matters for 2026 planning: you should not assume a sudden glut of homes will appear, but you can reasonably expect that any incremental increase in listings will have an outsized impact on how quickly you can buy or sell and at what price.

5. How 2026 forecasts frame the path from here

The recent sales uptick is arriving just as the first detailed 2026 projections are coming into focus, and together they sketch out a market that is steadier but still constrained. Analysts expect the next year to look less like a roller coaster and more like a slow climb, with modestly improving affordability and a gradual return of would-be movers who have been sidelined. For you, that means planning around incremental change rather than betting on a dramatic reset.

One national outlook argues that 2026 will bring a more stable housing market, with sales improving from recent lows but still running below the boom years. Another detailed forecast, titled Home Sales To Remain in Low Gear as Balance Holds, projects that in 2026, we expect a steadier housing market, but it is not yet off to the races, with home sales anticipated to rise nearly 9% year over year. Taken together with the current 0.5% Month Over Month gains, those forecasts suggest that the small improvements you see today are early steps toward that larger, measured recovery.

6. Mortgage rates, Main Street, and the 2026 affordability puzzle

Your 2026 playbook will live or die on the path of borrowing costs. Lower mortgage rates are already nudging more buyers back into the market, and most forecasts assume that trend will continue, though not in a straight line. For everyday households on Main Street, even a small decline in rates can unlock options that felt out of reach just a few months ago, especially when paired with slightly slower price growth.

At a recent gathering of top economists, the Forecast Summit Predicts Positive Recovery, With Regional Affordability Hurdles highlighted that Lower mortgage rates and inventory improvements are expected to drive a positive recovery, even as some regions continue to struggle with affordability. Opinion writers who track Mortgage rates versus Main Street have argued that What will drive the housing market in 2026 is the interplay between financing costs and local incomes, not just national averages. For your planning, that means running scenarios at multiple rate levels and stress testing your budget or pricing strategy rather than anchoring to a single optimistic assumption.

7. Regional and demographic shifts you should factor in

The national numbers hide sharp differences between markets and buyer groups, and those gaps will matter even more as sales slowly climb. Some regions that saw the steepest price gains in recent years are now facing tougher affordability ceilings, while others with more moderate pricing are poised to capture a larger share of 2026 demand. At the same time, demographic forces, from downsizing baby boomers to cash-heavy investors, are reshaping who you compete with on either side of the table.

Analysts who focus on the Housing Market Outlook have emphasized that What Buyers and Sellers Should Know Going Into the New Year is that Home Sales Are Expected to Increase as more move-up buyers and investors, who often purchase with cash, return to the market. The NAR 2026 Forecast Summit has also warned that regional affordability hurdles will persist even as national conditions improve, which means you should calibrate your expectations to your specific metro rather than assuming the broad 0.5% Month Over Month gains will translate one-for-one to your neighborhood.

8. How a more balanced 2026 market changes your tactics

The phrase you will hear repeatedly heading into 2026 is balance. After years of extreme seller leverage followed by a sharp affordability shock, the emerging environment looks more like a tug-of-war where neither side can dictate terms. For you, that means tactics that relied on urgency or deep discounts will both need to be adjusted to a world where negotiation is back and data matters more than drama.

Forecasts that hint at more balance and inventory recovery in 2026 note that Realtor experts predict a more stable housing market in 2026, with home prices expected to grow at a slower pace, around 2% year-over-year. That slower price growth, combined with the expectation that Balance Holds even as Home Sales To Remain in Low Gear, suggests you should focus on realistic pricing, strong presentation, and flexible terms rather than assuming rapid appreciation will bail out an aggressive list price or an overreach on your purchase budget.

9. Turning today’s data into a concrete 2026 game plan

So how do you translate a 0.5% sales increase and a 36-day median marketing time into actual decisions for 2026. If you are a buyer, the message is to prepare early, lock in financing options that let you move quickly when the right listing appears, and be ready to negotiate on terms like closing dates or repairs rather than expecting steep price cuts in a still-tight inventory environment. If you are a seller, you should plan for more days on market than during the pandemic boom, invest in making your home stand out, and price in line with recent comparable sales instead of chasing last year’s peak.

Looking ahead, the Low Gear recovery that forecasters describe, where home sales rise nearly 9% year over year as Balance Holds, lines up neatly with the modest but real improvement you are seeing in existing home sales today. If you treat this moment as an early rehearsal for that 2026 environment, you can refine your expectations, build in contingencies around rates and inventory, and step into the new year with a plan that is grounded in data rather than wishful thinking.

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*This article was developed with AI-powered tools and has been carefully reviewed by our editors.