The next existing-home sales report drops Jan 14, 2026 and here’s what people will be watching

The existing-home market is heading into 2026 with expectations of a rebound, and the next sales snapshot on January 14, 2026 will be the first hard test of those forecasts. You will not just be getting another monthly data dump, you will be seeing whether talk of a 2026 comeback is starting to show up in contracts, closings, and prices. To make sense of that report, you need a clear checklist of what to watch and how each number connects to the year ahead.

How the January report fits into a bigger 2026 story

The January 14 release will cover existing-home sales that closed late in 2025, but you should treat it as an opening argument for the 2026 housing narrative. Analysts are already calling for a meaningful rebound in activity, with one major forecast projecting that existing-home sales are expected to jump 14% in 2026 as mortgage costs ease and affordability slowly improves, a view highlighted in an outlook labeled NAR Forecast: Home Sales Expected to Jump 14% in 2026. When you read the January report, you are really asking whether late 2025 closings are lining up with that kind of acceleration or still stuck in the slower patterns of the past two years.

That is why you will want to look beyond the headline sales number and focus on the direction of change. If contract activity and closings are already edging higher, it would support the idea that lower borrowing costs and pent-up demand are beginning to unlock more transactions, themes that run through broader projections that the Housing Market Set for a 2026 Comeback, NAR Predicts. If the report instead shows sales still flat or slipping, you will know that the recovery story is more about the months ahead than the deals already in the pipeline.

The core metrics you should scan first

When the report lands, your first stop should be the basic counts and rates that define the existing-home market. The standard release tracks the annualized pace of existing-home sales, median prices, inventory levels, and how long properties sit on the market, all organized in a detailed Existing-Home Sales framework. Those figures tell you, in one glance, whether buyers or sellers have the upper hand and how quickly the market is moving.

Behind the headline, the technical Data tables break out single-family homes, condos, regional patterns, and the relationship between prices, inventory, and interest rates. As you read the January release, you should compare those breakouts with your own local experience: if the national median price is rising but your area feels softer, the regional section will often explain why. Paying attention to days on market and the ratio of sales to inventory will also help you see whether conditions are tightening or loosening as 2026 begins.

Why forecasters expect a 14% jump in sales

Much of the anticipation around the January report comes from how aggressive some 2026 forecasts have become. One widely cited outlook from Nov projects that existing-home sales are expected to Jump by 14% as borrowing costs ease and more owners finally decide to list, a scenario laid out in detail in the NAR Forecast: Home Sales to Jump 14% and Prices Will Keep Rising. Another summary of that same call, labeled Dec, underscores that Existing-home sales are forecast to increase by 14% while home prices are expected to rise by about 4% and mortgage rates drift lower, a combination that would mark a clear break from the freeze of 2023 and 2024, as highlighted in NAR Predicts Existing-Home Sales Will Rise 14% in 2026.

Those projections rest on a few key assumptions you should keep in mind as you interpret the January data. First, they assume that mortgage rates will continue to drift down rather than spike again, which would support more move-up buyers and free up inventory. Second, they assume that job growth will remain steady enough to support demand, a point emphasized in the Nov analysis that Steady job growth and lower rates could fuel a sales surge, captured in the Housing Market Set for outlook. If the January report shows sales already edging higher even before rates fully settle, it will suggest that those assumptions are starting to hold in the real world.

Mortgage rates, affordability, and what they signal

For you as a buyer or seller, the most important backdrop to the January report is the path of mortgage rates and what that means for affordability. Several 2026 outlooks now assume that average 30 year borrowing costs will stabilize rather than spike, with one Dec forecast explicitly calling for Average 30-year mortgage rates of 6.3% in 2026. That is still higher than the ultra cheap money of 2020 and 2021, but it is a meaningful improvement from the peaks that sidelined so many would-be buyers.

Regional experts are also watching how those borrowing costs interact with local incomes and prices. A Dec briefing on Housing Signals to Watch as 2026 Approaches notes that Stabilizing mortgage rates, cautious builder optimism, and easing price growth could gradually improve conditions even if financing never returns to pandemic-era lows, a dynamic captured in the Housing Signals analysis. When you read the January report, you should pay close attention to any commentary on how rates are affecting contract signings and whether affordability is improving enough to bring sidelined buyers back into the market.

Inventory, balance, and the shift away from extremes

Another crucial lens for the January data is inventory, because the number of homes for sale will determine how competitive 2026 feels on the ground. Several forecasts now expect listings to rise, with one 2026 outlook noting that Housing Inventory Could Increase by 5–10% compared with the anemic levels of recent years, a shift that would give buyers more options and reduce bidding wars, as outlined in the Housing Market Forecast 2026. If the January report shows months of supply starting to climb, you will know that this transition is underway.

Nationally, one Dec projection argues that the Housing Market Remains Balanced as Supply and Demand Find Firmer Footing, with the number of homes for sale expected to rise even as some households continue to face financial hurdles, a theme detailed in the Realtor.com 2026 Housing Forecast. Another Dec release from the same forecast family stresses that Existing-home sales are projected to improve gradually even as conditions remain challenging for some buyers, reinforcing the idea that 2026 will be more about normalization than a sudden boom, as described in the Realtor Housing Forecast. When you scan the January inventory figures, you are really checking whether that promised balance is starting to appear.

Regional affordability gaps and who feels the recovery

The January report will also hint at a more uneven story: some regions will feel a recovery long before others. A Dec event billed as NAR 2026 Forecast Summit Predicts Positive Recovery, With Regional Affordability Hurdles argues that Lower mortgage rates and improving national trends will not erase the fact that certain metros remain far more expensive relative to local incomes, a tension laid out in the Forecast Summit Predicts Positive Recovery, With Regional Affordability Hurdles summary. When you look at the January regional breakouts, you should expect to see stronger sales growth in markets where prices have already cooled and incomes can better support current mortgage rates.

Other national outlooks echo that split. A Dec overview of Housing market predictions for 2026: What buyers, renters, and homeowners can expect notes that most major housing forecasts indicate conditions will improve, but competition will still be intense in some areas and less intense than it once was in others, a nuance captured in the Housing market predictions for 2026: What analysis. As you interpret the January data, you should resist the urge to treat the national median as your personal reality and instead focus on how your region’s sales and prices compare with the broader pattern.

What buyers should watch in the January release

If you are planning to buy in 2026, the January report is your early roadmap for strategy. You will want to see whether inventory is actually rising in your price range, how quickly homes are going under contract, and whether price growth is moderating enough to keep monthly payments manageable. A Dec guide on Housing Market Forecast Hints at More Balance, Inventory Recovery in 2026 argues that for the third year in a row, shifting conditions could gradually move power back toward buyers as more listings hit the market and rent growth cools, a trend described in the Housing Market Forecast Hints outlook.

You should also pay attention to how forecasts describe buyer psychology. A Dec piece on 2026 Housing Market Predictions Home Sellers Need to Know notes that Economic Factors That Could Influence 2026, including Interest rates, inflation, and wage growth, will shape how aggressive or cautious buyers feel, and that buyer preferences evolve as the market shifts, as outlined in Housing Market Predictions Home Sellers Need. When you read the January report, you should ask whether the data supports a more patient approach, with more homes to choose from, or whether tight supply in your segment still calls for quick, decisive offers.

What sellers and owners should focus on

For sellers, the January numbers will help you decide how aggressively to price and how much leverage you really have. If the report shows that inventory is climbing and days on market are lengthening, you may need to adjust expectations away from the peak frenzy of 2021 and toward a more balanced environment. A Dec advisory titled Selling in 2026? What Rising Inventory and Market Changes Could Mean for Your Home’s Value explains that Why Inventory Matters, Why It is Expected to Increase, and how more competition can affect Your Home’s Value in 2026, while also stressing that a skilled agent coordinates all of the moving parts, themes detailed in Why Inventory Matters.

Owners who are not planning to move should still pay attention to how prices and sales volumes evolve, because they influence equity, refinancing options, and local tax assessments. The Dec forecast that Home sales and prices could trend up slightly, but do not expect big mortgage rate drops, and that home prices are expected to keep rising modestly, suggests that 2026 may reward patient owners more than short term flippers, as summarized in the Home Takeaways. When you read the January report, you should be looking for confirmation that price growth is steady rather than explosive, which would support a healthier, more sustainable market for your long term plans.

How to use the January data to plan your next move

By the time the January 14 existing-home sales report is released, you will have a thick stack of forecasts pointing to a better 2026, but that data drop is where the story starts to become real. You should line up the report’s sales pace, price trends, inventory levels, and regional patterns against the expectations that Existing-home sales are projected to improve and that the Housing Market Remains Balanced as Supply and Demand Find Firmer Footing, themes that run through the Dec Realtor.com 2026 Housing Forecast: Housing Market Remains Balanced. If the numbers line up, you can plan around a gradual, broad based recovery; if they do not, you will know to stay nimble.

Ultimately, the report is a tool, not a verdict. Whether you are a first time buyer watching for a small opening, a move up owner weighing whether to trade a low rate for a better home, or an investor tracking rents and vacancies, you should use the January data as a baseline and then adjust your strategy as new information arrives through 2026. As Dec analyses of Housing Signals to Watch as 2026 Approaches remind you, looking ahead, you are better off acting on the market you see than waiting forever for the perfect rate or price, a mindset captured in the Watch guidance. The January existing-home sales release will not answer every question, but if you read it with the right checklist, it will give you a clear, grounded starting point for the housing decisions you need to make in the year ahead.

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*This article was developed with AI-powered tools and has been carefully reviewed by our editors.